Thursday, March 29, 2012

Whoever wins the mini league wins the title!

Hello All.

I am writing after a long time due to sudden availability of time at work place. In my long absence I have missed paying tributes to Rahul Dravid on his retirement, Sachin Tendulkar on his 100th hundred and Arsenal's new 7 game winning streak. So for all those great guys and great moments I say just two words - Thank You!

Now moving on to something which I can post about which is about to happen in next 2 months. Premier League title race, race for Top 4, race for relegation, IPL season 5 and F1 "Kimi" Returns. This blog will focus only on the Premier League title race and race for Top 4. 

So here we go.

EPL Mini League Table – 2010/11 season
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Points
Man U
10
5
2
3
14
10
4
17
Liverpool
10
4
2
4
14
13
1
14
Arsenal
10
3
4
3
14
12
2
13
Tottenham
10
3
4
3
11
11
0
13
Chelsea
10
4
1
5
11
12
-1
13
Man C
10
3
3
4
6
12
-6
12

A few pointers from last season
  • Man C is bottom of the mini league. Last season they had bought horde of holding midfielders for 150m and as a result they scored very few goals and still have a negative goal difference of -6.
  • Liverpool played well against top teams but not so well against lower teams.
  • Arsenal is above Tottenham with a positive goal difference of 2. 
  • Chelsea have the highest loss % - 50% games lost
  • Man U keep plugging away silently with sometimes help of referees and manage to win the league every time.
  • The mini league was closer and games against each other were competitive. There were 16 draws last season and deviation in goal difference is 3.4.
EPL Mini League Table – 2011/12 season so far
Team
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Points
Man U
9
6
2
1
26
16
10
20
Man C
8
6
1
1
22
8
14
19
Arsenal
8
3
0
5
16
21
-5
9
Liverpool
9
2
3
4
8
14
-6
9
Tottenham
10
2
3
5
13
21
-8
9
Chelsea
8
1
3
4
12
17
-5
6

A few pointers from this season
  • The mini league has been one sided this year. Only one of the team has dominated the fixture against each other. There have been 12 draws so far and deviation in goal difference is 9.4.
  • 80% of Man U’s positive goal difference can be attributed to their two Arsenal matches.
  • 80% of Man C’s positive goal difference can be attributed to their back to back heavy wins earlier in the season against Man U (6-1) and Spurs (5-0)
  • Arsenal is the only team with no draws and yet they are in third place on the mini-League table. Proving, once again, that playing for a draw is almost always the worst tactic possible.
  • Liverpool have not performed as well as they did last season against Top 6
  • Man C corrected their short coming from last season by scoring 22 goals and also conceding only 8 goals after spending 200m on strikers and defenders.
  • No matter how the season starts, Spurs are and will always be below Arsenal :)
  • Chelsea has the lowest win % - 12% of games won so far.
  • As it stands, both Man U and Man City have taken 27% of their total points haul from their top six competitors.
CONCLUSION:
Based on the above stats, it is safe to predict that Manchester derby on 30th April will be the title decider. But it would be so much better if Arsenal wins their game on 8th April at Emirates against City’s mercenaries and which could also firmly put United in cruise control mode of the league.

Predictions for mini league table at the end of the season

Team
P
Points
Man U
38
93
Man C
38
88
Arsenal
38
80
Tottenham
38
72
Chelsea
38
69
Newcastle
38
63
Liverpool
38
57

Once again thanks everyone for reading. Enjoy the summers. :) :) :)

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